Surge in number of cases indicative of third COVID wave in India: Expert

Dr. Arora, however, asserted that there is no need to press the panic button.

Noting that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus accounts for more than 50% of cases in major Indian cities, Dr. N.K. Arora, chairperson of the COVID working group NTAGI, says the massive surge in numbers indicates a third wave, but there is no need to panic.

The head of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), who said Omicron is being detected in most states in India, also analysed the COVID graph in South Africa, where Omicron originated, and spoke of the “epidemiological similarities” between the two countries.

“If we look at the behaviour of the Omicron wave in South Africa, where it rapidly increased, in two weeks, the number of cases started coming down and most of the cases were either asymptomatic or had a mild illness…,” said Dr. Arora.

He went on to cite the “decoupling of the total number of COVID cases vis-a-vis those requiring hospitalisation” and said, “All these factors indicate that the Omicron wave in South Africa may soon subside.” There are some epidemiological similarities between South Africa and India, Dr.Arora pointed out. The natural infection rates in both the countries are very high, he said, adding that however, the immunisation rates in India are several fold higher.

“In view of this, we may see a somewhat similar pattern in India as far as the third wave is concerned.” “Looking at the behaviour of the Covid infection in the last seven to 10 days in India, I feel that we may be in for a third wave peak very soon,” he said.

Dr. Arora, however, asserted that there is no need to press the panic button.

“Those who are yet to take the vaccine or are partially immunised should get the jab for protection against severe disease and hospitalisation. Also, one should strictly follow Covid-appropriate behaviour,” he said.

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