Risky bets: On Russia, Ukraine and hopes of a diplomatic solution

Russia should do more to reduce tensions along its border with Ukraine

There is a strong case for de-escalation. Mr. Putin has already achieved many things, without a shot being fired. He has got the Western leadership to talk to him over the contested issue of NATO’s expansion, which Russia has long been complaining about. By putting a gun to Ukraine’s head, he has effectively drawn a red line in Russia’s relations with the West. Also, as the U.S. and its allies are scrambling for economic measures to punish Russia “if it invades Ukraine”, the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s continued support for separatists inside Ukraine have practically become non-issues. Nobody is threatening to punish Russia for not returning Crimea to Ukraine. The status quo has been redrawn. Besides, the U.S. has said it is open to discuss some of Russia’s security concerns, including missile deployments in Eastern Europe and military exercises in sensitive regions. Russia should accept the U.S. proposals, de-escalate the crisis around Ukraine and opt for more dialogue on critical issues, including NATO’s eastward expansion. If it still goes ahead with an attack, which U.S. President Joe Biden said could happen, it could well be a mistake. Russia might be in a position to overrun Ukraine militarily, but what comes next in Europe’s largest country is as unpredictable as it can get. If the post-9/11 military adventures of the U.S. are any lesson, it is that great powers could clinch swift victories against weaker countries but could fail miserably in sustaining those victories. Mr. Putin should not walk into the same mistake and thereby push Europe back into the darker days of the Cold War.

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