Assembly election results mapped to Lok Sabha seats show discernible shift

Assembly elections held close to the Lok Sabha elections have, with caveats, provided indications of the mood of the electorate.

If we tally the Assembly poll results from 2017 and 2018 and map them on to Lok Sabha seats, the BJP registers a drop compared to its 2014 performance. Here’s a look at the key States

If all the hypothetical situations with current alliances are considered, BJP+ would trail in 97 of the 195 Lok Sabha segments that it won in ‘14, Congress+ would lead in 79 segments (in ‘14, it won 21 seats), others would gain in 41 segments that they lost in 2014.

 

Uttar Pradesh

2014 Lok Sabha – BJP+ : 73, SP : 5, Congress : 2, BSP: 0

2017 LS segments – BJP+ : 71, SP : 5, BSP : 3, Congress : 1 (extrapolated from assembly results)

 

2017 Hypothetical 1 (BSP+SP alliance)

BJP+ : 30, SP+BSP: 49, Congress: 1

 

2017 Hypothetical 2 (BSP+SP+Congress+RLD)

SP+BSP+Congress+RLD: 64, BJP: 16

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Madhya Pradesh

2014 Lok Sabha – BJP: 27, Congress: 2

2018 Lok Sabha segments – BJP: 16, Congress: 13

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Rajasthan

2014 Lok Sabha – BJP: 25, Congress: 0

2018 Lok Sabha segments – BJP: 13, Congress: 12

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Chhattisgarh

2014 Lok Sabha: BJP: 10, Congress: 1

2018 Lok Sabha segments: Congress: 10, BJP: 1

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Gujarat

2014 Lok Sabha: BJP: 26, Congress: 0

2017 Lok Sabha segments: BJP: 21, Congress: 5

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Karnataka

2014 Lok Sabha: BJP: 17, Congress: 9, INC: 2

2018 Lok Sabha segments: BJP: 13, Congress: 11, JD(S): 4

2018 Hypothetical: Congress+JD(S): 23, BJP: 5

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Punjab

2014 Lok Sabha: SAD+BJP: 6, AAP: 4, Congress: 3

2017 Lok Sabha segments: Congress: 12, AAP: 1

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Uttarakhand

2014 Lok Sabha: BJP 5, Congress 0

2017 Lok Sabha segments: BJP 5, Congress 0

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Himachal Pradesh

2014 Lok Sabha: BJP: 4, Congress 0

2017 Lok Sabha segments: BJP 4, Congress 0

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Manipur

2014 Lok Sabha: Congress 2, BJP 0

2017 Lok Sabha segments: BJP 1, Congress 1

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Tripura

2014 Lok Sabha: CPI(M) 2, BJP 0, Congress 0

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Meghalaya

2014 Lok Sabha: Congress 1, NPP 1

2018 Lok Sabha segments: Congress 2

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Nagaland

201 Lok Sabha: NPF 1

2018 Lok Sabha segments: NPF 1

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Mizoram

2014 Lok Sabha: Congress 1

2018 Lok Sabha segments: MNF 1

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Goa

2014 Lok Sabha: BJP 2, Congress 0

2017 Lok Sabha segments: BJP 1, Congress 1

 

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